In the professional landscape of the National Football League, certain names become synonymous with a specific standard of performance.
In the realm of placekicking, that name is Justin Tucker. For over a decade, the Baltimore Ravens specialist has operated with a level of precision that often feels more algorithmic than human.
However, the nature of professional sports dictates that even the most elite practitioners are subject to the occasional anomaly.
One of the most frequent inquiries from analysts and fans alike centers on a specific threshold of perceived “certainty”: has Justin Tucker ever missed a field goal from under 40 yards?
To answer this requires a deep dive into over thirteen seasons of statistical data and a review of the few instances where the most accurate leg in football history proved to be mortal.
The Statistical Framework of a Hall of Fame Career
To understand the significance of a short-range miss, one must first establish the baseline of Tucker’s unprecedented consistency. Throughout his tenure in the league, Tucker has maintained a career field goal success rate of 89.1%.
This figure is not merely a high mark; it represents the gold standard for the position in the modern era. Across 212 games, he has converted 417 of 468 field goal attempts.
When we examine his total of 51 missed field goals, it is essential to categorize them by season and difficulty. For instance, in 2016 and 2019, Tucker recorded only one miss in each season, posting percentages of 97.4% and 96.6%, respectively.
These seasons exemplify the “automatic” reputation he has cultivated. However, the raw data shows that he is indeed susceptible to fluctuations. In 2015, he recorded seven misses, and in the 2024 season, he experienced a notable statistical dip with eight misses on 30 attempts, resulting in a career-low accuracy of 73.3%.
Addressing the Under-40 Yard Question
The core of the inquiry focuses on the “easy” kicks—those originating from within the 39-yard line and closer.
While these are considered routine for a kicker of Tucker’s caliber, he has missed attempts from this range. These moments are so rare that they often become the defining story of the game in which they occur.
The most prominent example in recent memory occurred on December 8, 2020, during a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. In a moment that silenced the stadium, Tucker missed a 36-yard field goal, hooked wide to the left.
To put the rarity of this event into perspective, that single miss terminated a historic streak of 70 consecutive successful field goals from inside 40 yards.
Before that December night, Tucker had effectively been perfect from short range for several years, reinforcing the narrative that a kick from that distance was a guaranteed three points.
Beyond the Dallas game, records indicate that Tucker had other misses from under 40 yards earlier in his professional journey.
While his long-range attempts—those exceeding 50 or 60 yards—naturally carry a higher risk of failure due to the power and trajectory required, the short-range misses are usually attributed to minute mechanical errors, timing issues with the snap and hold, or extreme environmental factors.
The 2024 Season: A Statistical Anomaly or a Shift in the Curve?
As we analyze the current state of Tucker’s performance, the 2024 season presents a unique case study in the longevity of elite athletes.
Statistics show that Tucker missed eight field goals in 2024, the highest single-season total of his career.
While his extra-point reliability remained elite at 96.8% (converting 60 of 62), the field goal percentage of 73.3% was a departure from his career average of 89.1%.
In the world of high-stakes sports analytics, a dip like this prompts several questions:
- Mechanical Consistency: Is there a shift in the kinetic chain of the kick?
- Environmental Variables: Did the Ravens face more inclement weather or poor turf conditions in their 2024 slate?
- Defensive Pressure: Were there more “contested” kicks where the trajectory was altered by the rush?
Despite these questions, the historical data suggests that Tucker often follows a “down” year with a return to form.
For example, after his 2015 season where he missed seven kicks, he returned in 2016 to miss only one. This resilience is a hallmark of his professional identity.
Comparative Reliability: Field Goals vs. Extra Points
Another metric of Tucker’s value is his performance on extra points (XP). Since the NFL moved the extra point back to a 33-yard attempt, many kickers have seen their percentages plummet. Tucker, however, has remained remarkably steady. His career average for extra points stands at 98.5%.
Between 2012 and 2017, he was perfect, missing zero extra points across six seasons. His first career XP miss did not occur until 2018.
This further underscores the shock that accompanies a miss from under 40 yards; if he can hit 524 of 532 extra points (which are effectively 33-yard field goals), any miss from a similar distance in a field goal situation is statistically an outlier.
The Psychology of the Short Miss
For an elite specialist, the mental recovery from a short-range miss is often more demanding than moving on from a 60-yard attempt that fell short.
A 36-yard miss, like the one against Dallas, is analyzed by coaches and fans as a “points left on the board” scenario.
Tucker’s ability to maintain a high career percentage despite these high-profile errors speaks to a psychological fortitude that mirrors the best in professional sports history.
The 89.1% career mark is a testament to his ability to “reset” after a mistake. Most kickers who experience a season like Tucker’s 2024 would see their confidence shaken, yet his role as a foundational piece of the Baltimore Ravens remains undisputed.
As of the August 2026 reporting period, he remains the primary scoring threat for a team that historically relies on a strong rushing attack and opportunistic special teams.
Why the “GOAT” Conversation Persists
The debate over the greatest kicker of all time (GOAT) usually centers on three factors: accuracy, range, and clutch performance.
- Accuracy: Even with 51 career misses, Tucker’s 89.1% remains at the top of the historical leaderboard.
- Range: Tucker holds the record for the longest field goal in NFL history (66 yards), a feat that balances out the rare short-range misses.
- Consistency: Having 212 games of experience and maintaining nearly 90% accuracy is a volume of work that few can match.
When we look at the 2025 division standings and team rankings, the Ravens’ identity is built on efficiency. They ranked 2nd in the league in rushing yards per game (156.6) and remained competitive in a difficult AFC North.
In such a system, the kicker is not just a secondary player; they are the “closer.” Tucker’s presence allows the offense to operate with the knowledge that crossing the opponent’s 40-yard line almost certainly results in points.
The Analytical Conclusion: A Legacy of Resilience
To answer the titular question: Yes, Justin Tucker has missed field goals under 40 yards. The 36-yard miss against Dallas stands as a landmark moment in NFL special teams history, not because of the failure itself, but because it ended a streak of 70 consecutive makes from that range.
In a world that demands perfection, Tucker has provided the closest approximation of it. His 51 career misses are spread across nearly 500 attempts, a ratio that any NFL franchise would accept without hesitation.
The 2024 season’s dip to 73.3% accuracy serves as a reminder that the margin for error in professional sports is razor-thin, yet Tucker’s career average of 89.1% ensures his place in the pantheon of football greats.
For stakeholders, fans, and analysts, the takeaway is clear: Justin Tucker is human, but his “imperfections” are so infrequent that they only serve to highlight the extraordinary nature of his standard performance.
Whether facing a 20-yard chip shot or a 60-yard game-winner, the probability of success remains higher with Tucker than with perhaps any other player to ever wear a uniform.
