How Do NFL Tiebreakers Work? A Guide to the League’s Tiebreaker Rules

The concluding weeks of a professional football season often produce a statistical logjam where parity across the league results in multiple franchises sharing identical win-loss percentages.

In this environment, the league utilizes a rigorous, hierarchical system of protocols to determine which organizations secure the eight automatic division bids and the six remaining Wild Card spots.

This protocol is not merely a set of rules but a prioritized list of criteria that advances one step at a time, concluding the moment a single team differentiates itself from the field.

Establishing Local Dominance

The process of determining the postseason field begins by establishing the hierarchy within each of the eight divisions.

For teams within the same division—such as the NFC West or AFC North—the league applies a 12-step procedure to resolve identical win-loss-tie percentages.

The following table outlines the prioritized criteria used to crown a division champion when two teams finish with the same record:

The Wild Card Matrix: Comparing Across Divisions

Once the division winners are established, the league shifts focus to the Wild Card race, which identifies the three best non-division winners in each conference.

The complexity increases here because the tied teams may not have faced one another or shared a significant number of opponents.

If the tied teams reside in the same division, the division tiebreaker rules listed above are applied first. However, if the teams are from different divisions, the league employs a slightly modified hierarchy:

• Head-to-Head Sweep: This only applies if one team has defeated every other tied team or, conversely, has lost to every other tied team.
• Conference Record: This is often the most decisive factor in Wild Card races, favoring teams that performed better against their own conference peers.
• Common Games (Minimum of Four): For teams in different divisions, the league requires at least four shared opponents for this step to be valid. These “common games” can include inter-conference matchups; for instance, if two NFC teams both played the entire AFC South division, those four games would count toward this total.
• Strength of Victory and Schedule: These metrics reward teams that performed well against high-caliber competition rather than those with “easier” schedules.
• Points and Touchdowns: These lower-level tiebreakers act as statistical filters that are rarely reached but provide an objective conclusion to a stalemate.

The Complexity of Multi-Team Ties and the “Restart Rule”

When three or more teams finish with identical records, the procedure becomes an iterative process designed to eliminate teams one by one. A critical component of this is the Restart Rule, which ensures that the comparison remains fair as the pool of tied teams shrinks.

• Elimination and Reversion: Only one team can advance through a specific tie-breaking step. Once a team is either awarded the higher seed or eliminated from the tie, the remaining teams do not simply move to the next step in the list. Instead, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the applicable two-team or three-team format.
• Intra-Division Precedence: In a multi-team Wild Card tie, the league first applies division tiebreakers to ensure only the highest-ranked club from any single division remains in the comparison for the Wild Card spot. For example, if two teams from the NFC North and one from the NFC South are tied for a Wild Card slot, the two NFC North teams are first compared against each other to see who moves forward to the conference-wide comparison.
• The Head-to-Head Nuance: In a three-way tie, a head-to-head win only counts if one team has beaten both of the other teams. If Team A beat Team B, Team B beat Team C, and Team C beat Team A, the head-to-head tiebreaker is effectively neutralized, and the league moves to the next step.

Advanced Statistical Tiebreakers: Strength of Victory and Combined Rankings

As the tiebreaker list descends, the criteria move from simple win percentages to deeper analytical assessments of a team’s performance relative to the rest of the league.

Strength of Victory (SOV) and Strength of Schedule (SOS)

Strength of Victory is often misunderstood as being identical to Strength of Schedule. While SOS looks at the records of every opponent a team faced, SOV only looks at the records of the teams you actually defeated. This rewards teams that beat winning opponents over teams that padded their records against struggling franchises.

The Combined Ranking System

For tiebreakers involving points, the league uses a unique “lowest score wins” ranking system.

• A team’s rank in “Points Scored” is added to their rank in “Points Allowed”.
• Example: If the Dallas Cowboys rank 1st in scoring but 5th in defense, their combined ranking is 6. If the Detroit Lions rank 3rd in scoring and 2nd in defense, their combined ranking is 5. In this scenario, the Lions would win the tiebreaker because their combined score is lower.
• If teams are tied for a specific rank, both are awarded that rank, and the next team in the list is skipped (e.g., if two teams tie for 1st, the next team is 3rd).

Historical Context: The Incentive to “Run Up the Score”

The modern placement of point-based tiebreakers at the bottom of the list is the result of historical gamesmanship.

In 1999, a scenario unfolded where the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers were locked in a tiebreaker that could have come down to net points.

• During the final week of that season, both teams realized that every point scored would help their playoff chances.
• This led to a bizarre situation where both teams continued to use hurry-up offenses and attempted to score late in blowout victories, effectively competing against each other from different stadiums.
• To discourage this behavior and maintain sportsmanship, the league moved point-related tiebreakers down to the 10th and 11th spots, ensuring they are only used in cases where all other statistical measures are perfectly equal.

The Final Contingency: The Commissioner’s Coin Toss

If all eleven statistical and performance-based tiebreakers fail to produce a winner, the league’s ultimate fallback is a coin toss conducted by the NFL Commissioner.

• Rarely Utilized: This procedure has never been used to determine a playoff spot in the modern era because the statistical probability of two teams being identical across 11 different metrics is infinitesimally low.
• Draft Order Usage: While a coin flip is an extreme rarity for the postseason, it is frequently utilized to determine the order of the NFL Draft when teams finish with identical records and strength of schedule.
• Procedure: If required, the flip takes place after the conclusion of the regular season (Week 18). It is a televised event, though not a lengthy broadcast, and involves the Commissioner meeting with representatives from the tied organizations.

Strategic Implications for Inter-Conference Matchups

While teams from the AFC and NFC do not compete for the same playoff spots and thus do not use tiebreakers against each other, their matchups still influence the protocol.

• Common Games: Inter-conference games are a vital component of the “Common Games” tiebreaker. If the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers are tied for a Wild Card spot, their performances against AFC opponents they both played will be factored into the 4-game minimum requirement.
• Total Winning Percentage: Because every win or loss contributes to a team’s final record and their opponents’ records, a Week 1 game against an opposite-conference opponent can ultimately be the deciding factor in a “Strength of Victory” calculation four months later.

Executive Summary of Tiebreaking Principles

The NFL’s tiebreaking system is built on a foundation of rewarding direct competition and conference performance. To navigate the final weeks of the season, stakeholders should prioritize the following hierarchy of importance:

1. Win the Division First: The most direct path to the postseason is through intra-division tiebreakers, which prioritize head-to-head results.
2. Conference Strength Matters: For Wild Card contenders, success against teams within the same conference (AFC or NFC) is the most significant secondary metric.
3. The Four-Game Rule: “Common opponent” tiebreakers are only triggered once a team has played at least four shared opponents, making late-season games against shared rivals statistically weighted.
4. Points as a Last Resort: While net points and touchdowns are part of the protocol, they are designed as fail-safes rather than primary objectives.

By following this structured protocol, the league ensures that every game played throughout the 18-week season contributes to an objective and fair determination of the championship field.