The Atlanta Braves are off to a hot start in 2023, leading the NL East with a 12-4 record and boasting one of the best offenses and pitching staffs in baseball.
But how likely are they to win it all this year? According to FanGraphs, a website that provides advanced statistics and projections for MLB teams and players, the Braves are the clear frontrunners to capture their first World Series title since 1995.
FanGraphs uses a system called ZiPS, which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times based on each team’s current roster, performance and schedule, to estimate the probability of each team making the playoffs and winning the World Series.
As of April 5, 2023, FanGraphs gives the Braves a whopping 16% chance of winning the World Series, the highest of any team in baseball. No other team has a higher than 10% chance, with the Dodgers (9.8%), Yankees (9.6%) and Astros (9.4%) being the closest contenders.
What makes FanGraphs so bullish on the Braves? There are several factors that contribute to their optimistic outlook. First, the Braves have a balanced and potent lineup that features several star hitters, such as Ronald Acuña Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley.
They also have some solid role players, such as Dansby Swanson, Travis d’Arnaud and Guillermo Heredia, who provide depth and versatility. The Braves rank second in MLB in runs scored per game (5.69), third in home runs (28) and fourth in OPS (.797).
Second, the Braves have a strong and deep pitching staff that can match up with any opponent. Their rotation is anchored by Max Fried, who has emerged as one of the best left-handers in the game, and Charlie Morton, who has been a reliable veteran presence.
They also have some young arms with high upside, such as Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright and Mike Soroka, who is expected to return from injury soon. The Braves rank fourth in MLB in ERA (3.19), fifth in WHIP (1.15) and sixth in strikeouts per nine innings (9.83).
Third, the Braves have a relatively easy path to the postseason, as they play in a weak division that features no other teams with a winning record as of April 5.
The Mets, who were expected to be their main rivals, have been plagued by injuries and underperformance, while the Phillies, Marlins and Nationals have been inconsistent and mediocre.
The Braves have a 79.7% chance of winning the NL East, according to FanGraphs, which is the highest divisional probability of any team in baseball.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed in baseball, and there are still many games left to play. The Braves could face injuries, slumps or surprises from other teams that could derail their championship hopes.
But based on their current performance and projections, FanGraphs sees them as overwhelming World Series favorites, and for good reason.
Final Thoughts: The Braves’ World Series Chances Look Promising
The Atlanta Braves have gotten off to a red-hot start in the 2023 MLB season, and their impressive performance has not gone unnoticed.
FanGraphs, a website that provides statistical analysis and projections for baseball teams and players, has given the Braves a 16% chance of winning the World Series, the highest of any team in baseball.
There are several factors that contribute to the optimism surrounding the Braves’ chances. First, their lineup is packed with star hitters who have been performing at a high level.
Ronald Acuña Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley are all capable of delivering big hits and driving in runs, and they are supported by a strong cast of role players who add depth and versatility.
The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball, ranking second in runs scored per game, third in home runs, and fourth in OPS.
Second, the Braves have a deep and talented pitching staff that can hold its own against any opponent. Max Fried and Charlie Morton lead the rotation, and they are joined by a group of young pitchers with tremendous potential.
The Braves have one of the best ERAs in baseball, and they rank highly in other key pitching categories as well.
Third, the Braves play in a weak division that gives them a clear path to the postseason. While other NL East teams have been struggling, the Braves have taken advantage of their opportunities and built up a strong lead in the standings.
FanGraphs gives the Braves a nearly 80% chance of winning the division, which is the highest of any team in baseball.
Of course, anything can happen in baseball, and the Braves still have a long road ahead of them. They will need to stay healthy, avoid slumps, and continue to play at a high level if they want to win it all.
However, based on their current performance and projections, it is clear that the Braves are a serious World Series contender, and they have a good chance of bringing home the championship trophy for the first time in nearly 30 years.